The majority of analysts including leading global banks like Standard Chartered and JP Morgan predicted a recession in 2023. However, the predictions remained inaccurate as the US economy sailed through and successfully avoided entering into a recession. The economy came out as expected with inflation cooling down to 3.1% compared to year-on-year at 6.5%. The job market in the US remained robust with hiring being unaffected across the country.
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However, the real-estate sector boomed in the US but the development added to the burden of the working class. Owning and renting a property is now beyond expensive as the US economy dodged a real-estate crash.
Now that the US economy avoided a recession in 2023, what’s the outlook for this year in 2024? In this article, we will highlight how the US economy could fare in the next 12 months of 2024.
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US Economy: A Recession Prediction For 2024
Larry Adam, the Chief Investment Officer at Raymond James predicts that the US could face a “mild recession” in 2024. According to James, the layoffs at tech giants such as Amazon, Microsoft, Google, and Meta could continue into 2024. Leading tech giants are looking to avoid cash burnout and let go of staff to remain afloat during a crisis.
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If multinational corporations are looking to reduce debt, the development will in turn affect the US economy. However, James predicts that a recession like 2008 is not on the cards, a mild recession is likely in 2024. “Our base case is that we have a mild recession,” he said to CNBC and added that it will be “the mildest in history”.
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The only sector that will be affected majorly according to him is the jobs sector. However, he claims that the phase could be temporary and tech giants could begin hiring after the storm is over.